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2010-2012

The Arab Spring

A fruit vendor set himself on fire in a town of 40,000. Three presidents fell in 281 days.

Jonathan Rashad, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

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You think you know how this one starts. A vendor sets himself on fire to protest a dictatorship, and the dictatorship falls.

That is not quite what happened. Mohamed Bouazizi did not stand outside a palace or a parliament. He stood outside the local governor's office, in a town of forty thousand people, after an inspector took his fruit cart and his scale, worth about two hundred dollars, and refused to let him inside to complain.

Two more presidents fell within the year that followed, in three different ways, and of the six countries this shook, exactly one became a democracy.

Scene 1Sidi Bouzid

December the seventeenth, two thousand ten. Mohamed Bouazizi pushes his cart to its usual spot outside the governor's office in Sidi Bouzid. He is twenty six.

A municipal inspector named Faida Hamdi confiscates the cart and the electronic scale. Witnesses say she slaps him. He goes inside to complain. They refuse to see him.

At eleven thirty in the morning, he stands in front of the building, douses himself in paint thinner, and strikes a match.

He is taken to a hospital in Sfax. He dies on January the fourth.

Protests reach Kasserine, Thala, and Tunis within days. Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, who has ruled Tunisia for twenty three years, sends riot police and snipers. At least three hundred thirty eight people are killed.

On January the fourteenth, twenty eight days after Bouazizi struck the match, Ben Ali boards a plane for Jeddah. He never comes back.

Three words, and no leader, no party, and no manifesto behind them beyond that. It is the only thing every uprising in this story agrees on, and it is the last thing they agree on.

Aerial view of Tahrir Square during the Egyptian revolution, showing hundreds of thousands of demonstrators occupying the square and surrounding streets. The square became the symbolic center of the Arab Spring.
Aerial view of Tahrir Square during the Egyptian revolution, showing hundreds of thousands of demonstrators occupying the square and surrounding streets. The square became the symbolic center of the Arab Spring.Jonathan Rashad, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons (2011-02-08)

Scene 2The square

Egypt follows. On January the twenty fifth, 2011, tens of thousands march in Cairo, Alexandria, and Suez.

By the Day of Rage, January the twenty eighth, the police have been overrun and the army has deployed. By February the first, over a million people fill Tahrir Square.

Map showing the divergent outcomes of the Arab Spring across the Middle East and North Africa: Tunisia (democratic transition), Egypt (military counter-revolution), Libya (state collapse and civil war), Syria (civil war, 500,000+ dead), Yemen (civil war), Bahrain (suppressed by Saudi military intervention). Morocco and Jordan survived through limited reform.
Map showing the divergent outcomes of the Arab Spring across the Middle East and North Africa: Tunisia (democratic transition), Egypt (military counter-revolution), Libya (state collapse and civil war), Syria (civil war, 500,000+ dead), Yemen (civil war), Bahrain (suppressed by Saudi military intervention). Morocco and Jordan survived through limited reform.Ian Remsen, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons (2013)

Scene 3The pipe

Libya's uprising begins February the fifteenth. Muammar Gaddafi, in power for forty two years, promises to hunt protesters alley by alley, house by house.

Scene 4Everyone else

The other three uprisings never get a Sirte moment.

In Bahrain, a Shia majority marches for political rights against a Sunni monarchy. On March the fourteenth, twelve hundred Saudi troops cross the King Fahd Causeway to crush it.

In Yemen, a journalist named Tawakkol Karman has been organizing protests in Sanaa's Change Square since two thousand seven. That October she becomes the first Arab woman to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

Scene 5The fork

Tunisia holds free elections in October 2011.

Egypt holds its first competitive presidential election in June 2012. The Muslim Brotherhood's candidate wins it.

One year later, on July the third, 2013, General Sisi removes him in a military coup.

Libya fractures into rival governments and militia rule. Syria becomes a proxy war. Yemen becomes a famine. Morocco and Jordan survive through limited constitutional reform.

Of the six countries where a ruler was directly challenged, one becomes a democracy.

Five accounts

Five accounts of what those years meant, and none of them agree.

  1. The revolutionaries
  2. The regime
  3. The Muslim Brotherhood
  4. The realists
  5. Women's experience

The turn

And here is what each account cannot afford to say.

  1. Revolutionary / Youth / Democratic

    The revolutionaries call having no vanguard their virtue, and say less about the cost. Egypt's first free parliament gave Islamist parties seventy three percent of the seats.

    From the record
    The revolutionaries' failure to build political organizations capable of winning elections
    Internal divisions among protesters over Islamism, secularism, and minority rights
    Violence committed by some protesters against police and state property
    The economic demands that drove much of the participation (unemployment exceeded 30% among Egyptian youth in 2011)
  2. Authoritarian Stability / Regime

    The regime's account counts the jobs and the sects it protected, and says almost nothing about the corruption and the police brutality that put people in the street to begin with.

    From the record
    The regimes' own role in creating the conditions (corruption, unemployment, police brutality) that caused the uprisings
    The Rabaa massacre as state violence orders of magnitude beyond any protester violence
    The self-fulfilling nature of the stability argument; Assad destroyed Syria to prove that without him, Syria would be destroyed
    Political prisoners, torture, and enforced disappearance as tools of regime survival
  3. Islamist / Muslim Brotherhood

    The Brotherhood counts its votes, and says little about how it governed with them: a constitutional declaration Morsi granted himself, and fuel shortages that vanished within forty eight hours of the coup that removed him.

    From the record
    Morsi's governance failures (the constitutional declaration, the Islamist-dominated drafting process)
    The Brotherhood's sectarian rhetoric that alienated Christians and secular Egyptians
    Internal authoritarianism within the Brotherhood's own organizational structure
    Hamas (the Brotherhood's Palestinian branch) and its governance record in Gaza
  4. Geopolitical / Realist

    The realist account explains the money, and reduces everyone underneath it to a pawn. Millions of people had genuine grievances that no foreign treasury created.

    From the record
    The genuine popular grievances that drove the uprisings; this perspective reduces agency to great-power competition
    The moral distinction between civilians protesting and states bombing them
    The democratic aspirations of millions who were not pawns in a proxy game
    Russia and Iran's direct complicity in atrocities against Syrian civilians
  5. Women's Experience / Feminist

    And the women's account is the best documented of the five, and still the smallest audience. Tunisia is the one place any of it held, and even there it took a labor union.

    From the record
    Conservative women who supported the Brotherhood or opposed the revolution on religious grounds
    Women within the security forces and regime structures
    The pre-revolutionary women's rights infrastructure that enabled post-revolutionary gains in Tunisia
    Male allies who advocated for gender equality within the revolutionary movements

Look past all five accounts, and the same three words produced a democracy, a military dictatorship, a failed state, a civil war, a famine, and two monarchies that bought their way out of hearing them.

Close

The cart and the scale that Faida Hamdi confiscated were worth about two hundred dollars.

That confiscation became the symbol of an uprising that reached seventeen countries.

The record

By the numbers

Span
2010-2012
Killed
Tunisia: ~338, December 2010-March…
Displaced
10.7MCombined population of primary countries: Tunisia, Egypt…
Place
Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Bahrain, Yemen, Morocco, Jordan

Key figures

  • Mohamed BouaziziTunisian fruit vendor whose self-immolation on December 17, 2010 triggered the uprisings; died January 4, 2011, age 261984 to 2011
  • Zine El Abidine Ben AliPresident of Tunisia for 23 years (1987-2011); fled to Saudi Arabia on January 14, 2011; first Arab leader toppled by the uprisings; died in exile September 19, 20191936 to 2019
  • Hosni MubarakPresident of Egypt for 30 years (1981-2011); resigned February 11, 2011 after 18 days of protests; sentenced to life imprisonment, later acquitted; died February 25, 20201928 to 2020
  • Bashar al-AssadPresident of Syria; refused to step down; survived the uprising through military force, Russian air power (from September 2015), and Iranian-backed militias; over 500,000 Syrians died in the resulting civil war1965 to ?
  • Tawakkol KarmanYemeni journalist and activist; organized protests in Sanaa's Change Square; first Arab woman to win the Nobel Peace Prize (2011); called "Mother of the Revolution" and "Iron Woman"1979 to ?
  • Mohammed MorsiMuslim Brotherhood leader; won Egypt's first competitive presidential election (June 2012, 51.7%); overthrown by military coup July 3, 2013; collapsed and died during a court hearing on June 17, 20191951 to 2019
  • Abdel Fattah el-SisiEgyptian Defense Minister who led the July 3, 2013 military coup against Morsi; president of Egypt from 2014; oversaw the Rabaa al-Adawiya massacre (August 14, 2013, at least 817 killed according to Human Rights Watch)1954 to ?
  • Muammar GaddafiLeader of Libya for 42 years (1969-2011); captured and killed by rebel fighters outside Sirte on October 20, 20111942 to 2011